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Rational treatment of the stock market rally


The rule of the market. Capital market development must be linked with changes in fundamentals,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], to the macroeconomic development of the situation with the link. Nasdaq has been adjusted since 2001, fluctuations in 1000 for 3 years, until two years ago, the U.S. economy started to recover gradually climbed to 2000 points} 10000 points and the Dow down more than three years time, also started to break two years ago to 11,000 points. If the NASDAQ listed company's bottleneck is not out of the development model, there is no breakthrough to new areas, can not bring new investment to the market value, the market can not form new growth expected by the capital would have no benefit can be a rational investment Zhe Yi will not act rashly, can only be low for the Nasdaq. Without the United States from the state of 9.11 after the recovery of economic downturn, the Dow is difficult to have an incentive to break the 11,000 point. Although the split share reform to make the A-share market's institutional environment has changed dramatically, but the performance of listed companies and not immediately to enhance the determining factors, so from an investment point of view, the capital market environment, the micro and macro levels, have not formed the basis of information expected to make money, so the sharp rise in the recent series against the development of capital markets law. A-share market further develop In addition, such a rapid rise in A-share market that have not been the primary market irrationality reborn. A mature market would be more rational, no matter what time should adhere to the value investing philosophy, it should reflect the sensitivity of macro information, should be the barometer of the macro economy. I observe that this rose is a general rise up every day with more than 800 companies, 80 companies daily limit. This seems indiscriminate people with an enormous feeling of blindness. In fact, the overall annual disclosure of performance is not satisfactory, generally rose and a compelling story not to support. From the perspective of the revaluation has not been well explained by 800 stocks favored reason. We have 31 A + H compared Shi Yinglv stocks, in addition to ZTE, Qingdao Beer, Huaneng Power International, China Southern Airlines, Maanshan Steel, Anshan Steel and other companies in the A shares and H shares Shi Yingshuai more consistent, of which 3 ~ 4 H share earnings slightly higher than A shares, the remaining shares of stock A price-earnings ratio was significantly higher than the number of H shares, value and price of the departure from the already very large, so the market's recent behavior was not very rational, since the sudden change in the culture of reform careful consideration Recently the central bank raised lending rates, indicating that excessive investment is still a serious problem exists in the economy, many economists expect the introduction of further control measures do not rule out the possibility, but the capital market seems to completely ignore this signal, there is no reason to adjust behavior and signs, so that people can not help but think of its own way of capital markets, investment behavior and the macroeconomic environment to ignore irrelevant Majesty of the era. 4 years experience of adjustment, the loss of tens of thousands of yuan, from an investor perspective, the most deserving of a lesson, that is, the stock market is a high risk market, the stock market blindly chase sell investment taboo. Thus, trained at great cost to the value investment philosophy, prudent rational investment behavior, should be market-driven. Especially in the current market or pain after the recovery phase, but also need to Of course, the face of such a huge amount of money and the enthusiasm of investors, a better approach is to provide greater investment opportunities. If lost no time in restoring the bubble formation, and the role of providing investment opportunities, both to protect the newly restored market confidence, but also optimize the capital market allocation of resources into full play the function. Faced with such a win-win choice, it is important act decisively to seize the best opportunity for market development. Since last year, the share reform, the market has been greatly changed the behavior of all those involved are more rational subject is more standardized. Through macro-control in 2004, the stock market began to show macro-economic Reform of the old market is not easy, more difficult to create a new market. Face many new challenges, we can not step back two steps forward, but not completely backwards. Market participation of all the main idea should be completely converted, and jointly create a rational market continues to boom. I (The author is chief economist at Galaxy Securities) Prospects Newsweek May 15, 2006