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Four trillion plan fear is difficult to stimulate domestic demand


Institutional foundation needed, but if the four-trillion or more of the money used to establish the social security system, health care reform, education reform, the establishment of consumer society will lay the institutional basis. Moreover, do not create security system, people are afraid to spend money, the fairness of the international economic order also affected the accumulation of the Chinese people into the developed countries consumption. More urgent, with the economic downturn, increased unemployment, social security system and the establishment of medical security system, but also countries to reduce volatility, an important guarantee for lasting stability. Allow local governments to issue bonds, raise tigers as loyalty trillion in funds, efficiency and people's livelihood must be in two aspects. In the past in education,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], health care, housing and other aspects of protection of type less government spending, both the Government to increase public investment to stimulate investment in the period of economic contraction. Economic development can also make up the short board,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], make up for past lack of investment in public finance. Unfortunately, there is no immediate benefit because the people's livelihood investments, the enthusiasm of the local government is clearly not high, have been published in various local government investment blueprint, the focus is still the railways, highways, power plants, real estate and other infrastructure projects, while the share of livelihood projects proportion of rarely more than 15%. This will allow investment in government investment and market confusion, reducing the efficiency of the overall investment community, and people's livelihood remain short board. In the world, are the chronic inefficiency of government investment, China is now repeated the audit report, Four-trillion-active fiscal policy is not pie in the sky falling, no expenditures are required by the fiscal surplus or issue an advance of future revenue bonds and other measures, if inefficient competition for investment and private investment in the market,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], ignoring the people's livelihood, the inevitable reduction in the future China's overall economic efficiency. Most of the local launch of the 18 trillion in infrastructure, and then ask for bank loans, 72o also required to have made claims. The budget and final accounts of the law in the absence of hard constraints, there is no open and transparent system of public finance situation, to allow local governments to issue bonds is tantamount to Yanghuweihuan. Reported in a few weeks, local government investment of 18 trillion, this matter must be Cautious in the Great Leap Forward, Great Leap Forward investment is in fact a deficit finance, private investment and the banks will eventually be bundled with the local government finance, the Chinese economy is worrisome. Continue to subsidize the name of profit but in reality the central level we have enough of a headache. Which withstand the next few years and then burst out of the local government went bankrupt financial situation! As long as we do not have hard constraints on public finances, as long as there is no hard constraints on the NPC (National People's Congress and the current director of many places by the municipal government leaders concurrently, in fact can not play a top-level officials of government and local role in supervision and restraint), to the local government issued debt is tantamount to depriving the taxpayer's wealth. Do not save China not only tide over the crisis, but to create an even greater disaster. Guard against the economy back to the extensive mode of growth the government announced an investment in the + direction,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], emphasizing the structural reforms. Stressed the increasing income of farmers. Financial package from the current point of view, the government or full consideration to the need for further structural reforms. But it is worth noting is. In China, local governments always have a strong impulse to invest. If the stimulus did not lead to residents, businesses (especially private enterprises) increased demand, but only to arouse the local government investment impulse, stimulus package to be successful. We should be all sorts of possible consequences of a full appraisal. Government, through a higher than expected economic stimulus plan to boost everyone's confidence is necessary, but must prevent the governments around the herd again, gets going on the possibilities. This regard the lessons of the second half of 2005 is noteworthy. Four trillion is a very alarming figure, not to mention the local government's 18 trillion package. China's GDP is only 30 trillion yuan, and the program of the former four-trillion Chinese economy will inevitably continue extensive growth mode, and this model does not enable us to effectively extend high-speed economic growth. In the spirit of the command of the scientific development concept, the Government has visions intended to change the earlier years of extensive economic growth mode, and then vigorously promote energy conservation and the protection of environmental resources, relying solely on changes in investment and foreign trade export-led economic model,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], reduce the number of low value-added export tax rebate rate, no doubt this is a right track. However, the current four-trillion stimulus package to implement the scientific development outlook for the big challenge, a return to the past extensive economic growth pattern that the risk of making the Government's original efforts greatly reduced. In addition, people are worried about the recurrence of redundant construction and haphazard construction, construction of the tide of surprise, and such worries are not unfounded. Painting
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