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On the causes of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the impact on our economy and Enlightenment


Abstract: 2007, the United States subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global financial turmoil, although under its direct impact on China's smaller, but indirect effects can not be ignored. This article discusses the causes of the subprime mortgage crisis and the impact on China, on the basis of China's economic development thinking accordingly. Keywords: the sub-prime crisis; causes; of First, the causes of the subprime crisis U.S. subprime mortgage crisis occurs and not accidental, but formed by a variety of factors together, there are about three main reasons: (a) the macroeconomic development of the cyclical fluctuations in the U.S. subprime crisis is the deep reason After 2000 2001 after a brief recession, especially after 9 • 11, United States adopted a series of measures to stimulate economic growth, prompting the U.S. economy for many years of sustained, rapid growth to 2004, U.S. economic growth rate reached a new high of nearly 5 years, to 4.2%. Sustained economic growth for the rapid expansion of the U.S. subprime mortgage market provides a very favorable macro environment, as people generally hold to the good economic growth is expected, the subprime mortgage business institutions to relax the sub-prime access standards. After a round of rapid economic growth cycle, in 2004, the U.S. economy began to fall into the cycle, a reversal of economic growth has brought a chain reaction, accumulated in the subprime mortgage risk unfolding, and spread around the world. (B) the shrinking real estate market generated U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is the direct cause of 20 late 80s, early 90s, the U.S. real estate boom lasted ten years, home sales continue to set new Record prices have more than 10% per year rate of increase rose between 1995 and 2006 U.S. house prices doubled. Affected by the upward trend of real estate, expanding the U.S. sub-prime. From mid-2006, U.S. real estate market began to cool down real estate prices decline, the third quarter of 2006 to July 2007, U.S. home prices fell more than 10%, home sales dropped sharply in May 2007 to be U.S. homes Housing sales reached record levels, more than 400 million units. The situation reversed as the U.S. real estate, subprime mortgage crisis began to show. (C) of the liberal market access and innovation of financial derivatives lack of knowledge planted the seeds of the subprime crisis 2001 年 to 2004, the Federal Reserve to implement policies such as low interest rates further to stimulate the real estate industry development continues to heat up enthusiasm for American buyers, the subprime mortgage credit conditions become less favorable level of loans required the first choice of buyers. Driven by the interests and competition among lenders, forcing the operators have to subprime mortgages accelerated product innovation, gave birth to a variety of high-risk subprime mortgage products, some lending institutions and even launched a zero-document Liberal loan qualification to become an active real estate market a major force in unprecedented, but also planted the seeds of the crisis. Second, China's economy (a) direct impact on our economy by round of the U.S. subprime crisis relatively limited direct impact. Because of the relative independence of the Mainland's financial system,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the renminbi under the capital account is still not fully convertible, the risk of global financial markets will not be immediately passed to the country. Because of the subprime loans are structured products, currently mainly in the U.S. and European markets, China's low level of participation, our government and institutions of direct investment overseas investment losses are relatively small. (B) the indirect effects of First, at the international conditions for a sustained credit crunch, some But given the current QFII A-share market funds in the proportion of small, A loss of liquidity of shares should be small and supportive of assets, mainly from the revaluation surplus under trade and domestic bank credit creation, the withdrawal of hot money impact will not be directional. Second, the Fed cut by direct injection of capital and the discount rate and other measures to ease the pressure to cut interest rates, subsequent policy action will be on China's monetary policy and exchange rate policies have an impact. Current assessment of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis on the ultimate impact of surviving in the more uncertainty. If the U.S. housing market a However, if there is a significant decline in the U.S. housing market situation continues, the Fed is likely to ease monetary policy again. This will be China's exchange rate reform and macro-control is very bad: in the United States, while easing on the RMB exchange rate to put more pressure, more international capital flows to China, China's foreign exchange reserves continued to rise significantly, financial and economic fields more excess liquidity, the stock market and property prices continue to rise significantly, the rapid expansion of the bubble. Finally, the external pressure, a significant appreciation of the RMB, the withdrawal of international capital from the country, the economy cooling, the asset bubble burst, then Japan is a warning. Third, China's Economy of China (a) of the value and risks of housing finance markets impact the production and obvious cyclical housing market and high risk, the resulting mechanism and influence must attach importance. Closely related to real estate and financial industries, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is caused by excessive borrowing, the U.S. real estate boom in the market of financial institutions to relax loan conditions, the introduction of the first song after the close of loan products. And the subprime mortgage crisis, the U.S. property market and financial markets are not too many signs, like the night the storm hit, so pay particular attention to the false prosperity of the real estate industry. At present the growth of household wealth in China is built on the basis of the high mortgage, so the real estate price fluctuations on financial markets and the entire economic development should be ahead of the possible impact of causing a high priority. Can say that the existence of potential financial market risks, a reversal in the real estate market will face enormous challenges, and this reversal may be due to the intervention of government policy; the real estate market itself may be the impact of cyclical variation . Therefore, accurate determination of the housing financial market risks, assessment of government policies on the role of the housing market and a reasonable balance between risk and return of financial institutions, is to reduce the risk of housing finance market, an effective method, which should be introduced to the market of new financial derivatives should be taken when the method. (B) The Government must develop direct financing market government must vigorously develop the direct financing market to build multi-layer financial market system, to spread market risk, avoid risk concentration in the banking system. Although China's financial reform has been more than a decade, but the financing channels for enterprises in China are still mainly based on indirect financing banks, the stock market is not yet standardized, corporate bond market has just started, so the market risk is concentrated in the banking system, which is not conducive to China's harmonious development of the financial and economic environment. The good news is our government has recognized the problem, the past two years through share reform and the introduction of a variety of regulatory rules make up the stock market booming, has been gradually becoming standardized and more able to cope with China's economic development. With the introduction of stock index futures and the corporate bond market, the establishment of direct financing channels for financing will play an increasing function, and gradually spread market risk, ensure that China's harmonious development of economic and financial sector. (C) strengthening financial supervision, improve risk management of derivative products in the U.S. subprime crisis, we can see that the U.S. financial system, there are several aspects of lack of supervision or regulatory loopholes , which is China's financial regulators, is an important warning. The regulatory crisis for China's future should be an important lesson: we must be aware of the importance of financial supervision, the market is not omnipotent, monitoring plays an important role. Financial innovation, especially financial derivatives is a double-edged sword, must be to seek maximum benefits while avoiding disadvantages, financial regulatory departments should carry out their duties, to improve their regulatory capacity to prevent and defuse financial risks. References: [1] Li Li. Of the reasons the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the conduction mechanism [J]. Modern Economics and Management Science .2008. (. [2] Wei Lijun. sub-prime crisis to China's Economy of China [J]. China Private Technology and Economy, 2008. (. [3] Terence Lee Meng. U.S. subprime crisis on China's economic development and countermeasures [J]. Liaoning Provincial Institute of Socialism,
next2008. (2). paper web online [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] </ A