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Moderate inflation of the life insurance business of structural
View of the above factors and understanding, can predict the reproduction of the year 2008 the overall inflation in the traditional sense, that aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply caused prices continued to rise sharply unlikely. Not fundamentally ease the crunch, the economy is in the initial recovery of incipient inflation, the rise of the structural premise, usually not much practical significance. At this point if the cycle under the laws of economic development, the That analysis, the current five-year average price index is below the benchmark level of inflation, is still in rehabilitation rise, deflation remains a few years ago, prices continued to decline since a reasonable return, so will it belong to a structural moderate inflation, should be the objective. After this calculation, is expected compared to last year, this year's price index rises will be controlled within the range of 5% within the past 5 years compared to the average benchmark price level rose less than 3%, the RMB exchange rate appreciation during the space should be about 1%, 5 years average interest rate on one-year trend of bank deposits will be at 2% to 4% between the two.
Modest structural inflation is conducive to economic growth, can bring the structural increase in income (middle income groups expanded), thereby increasing the demand for life insurance products will help defuse the life insurance business in the Spread Loss. So long as they can achieve effective control, a balanced portfolio and to coordinate the development objectives, modest structural inflation will be more beneficial to the overall life insurance industry bigger and stronger. At the same time it must be noted that structural inflation will make life more complex operating environment, the use of life insurance funds posed new challenges.
The structural inflation should moderate inflation, the basis for the:
At the same time, our government has accumulated rich experience and effective regulatory control means. For the current structural inflation, the government is not only early warning, early preparation, and in this year's measures (reducing the GDP development indicators, proposed coordination and sustainable economic development concept.) This shows that the government has coordinated with the economy, balanced and steady development of control and have made full preparations. To be sure, as long as timely and effective government regulation, inflation may not occur or were relatively small. The problem is in the current employment situation is grim,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Therefore research
Course, we can not but concern the formation of expansion of the investment problem of excess production capacity, can not but concern about the coexistence of inflation and tight under the premise of all economic reform and the contradictions and problems, whether in the next few years may suddenly deteriorate , these problems should be highly vigilant in the future but should try to avoid.
Experienced several comprehensive test of inflation, the Chinese people, the capacity of inflation has been greatly strengthened, it is impossible to form as before the needs of blind impulse, demand is expected to become more rational than in the past and goals of , the expected changes in market demand,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], inevitably a profound impact on the structure and direction of the trend of inflation.
First, this is the result of structural changes in domestic prices. China has increased investment for many years to implement a positive -oriented financial policy, and accompanied by sound monetary policy to fight deflation, the expansion of aggregate demand. This policy has resulted in local government comprehensive follow-up, so that the trend of expansion of private investment there. Rapid growth of investment has not occurred to form the basis of a corresponding increase in consumption (in fixed asset investment last year, the actual growth rate of 26.7%, while total retail sales of social consumer goods over the same period increased by only 9.1%, consumption growth was slower than the investment growth), so investment in fixed assets high growth rate of economic development must become part of the adjustment. Although the central government has on the iron and steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum heat warning issued by the three industry directly, but steel,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], cement, electrolytic aluminum and other raw materials and energy prices, the trend is not effectively controlled. Imposed by the cut of factors, some agricultural prices also follow up, so that the cost-push inflation, an accumulation of explosive force. Closely than in some industries, automotive and individual areas of real estate has been overheating trend, we should also be concerned about the price and not the formation of most of the industry overall upward trend, the prices of different products and industries still go up and down Some industries and even the overall consumption is still not out of lack of demand. While the domestic market but also the existence of two lines of commodity prices reverse the trend. It is this structural change in the price will constitute the current economic structural inflation.
Secondly, it should be noted that in previous years the economic contraction that inflation is just under the premise of the rise of moderate inflation, economic contraction is not completely eliminate the root causes of some of the industry trend of tightening has not been effectively curbed, so the current economic inflation is running at the same time co-exist with structural constraints and reverse the trend.
Structural trend of the inflation forecast
Modest structural inflation

Finally, it is a structural change in China's economic development results. The current per capita GDP has exceeded 1000 U.S. dollars, a very important step onto the national economy. Income will be the development of the pyramid to the olive, the middle income class will expand rapidly; concept and structure of consumption will be development and enjoyment-type upgrades. Upgrade of consumption structure, will drive the investment structure and enhance the overall production structure. Some changes in product demand industry sectors, will inevitably lead to changes in the prices of some products will inevitably lead to structural changes in the national economy.
Again, the trend of world economic recovery has been quite obvious. Especially the United States, Japan and other countries to increase corporate profits, it may lead the world economy into a new investment cycle; developing countries continue to expand exports, but also increased the strength of domestic demand; the world and stock market contrarian Yang Biao, began the rise of consumer spending,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], business investment is on the rise. As the national economy is increasingly integrated into the global economy, increasing dependence on foreign trade in China (China's economic and external dependence have been more than 50%), domestic commodity prices and international market prices increasingly higher correlation, most commodity prices to varying degrees has been subject to the premise of the international market, international prices of raw materials and energy trends, will promote China's economic structural inflation.
The life insurance business of structural inflation


structural inflation horizon
Eighties and nineties of the 20th century is very different overall inflation, China's economy is structural inflation horizon. Because inflation is structural, but also because it is the horizon, so some people say not inflation,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], was said to be moderate inflation, the official diameter is defined as Now that the definition of structural inflation in the past have been different, it is more important is the total demand is not excessive in the circumstances, because of demand in some sectors or industries excessive prices of some products caused by the phenomenon. The causes and mainly as:
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