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paper Abstract: The United States National Defense University, Institute of Strategic Studies scholars from a strategic perspective and analysis of China's current situation and strategic development trend, in which including political, economic, military and international relations.
American scholars believe that reform of the likelihood of success of the Beijing regime is fifty percent, the possibility of a corrupt thirty-five percent,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], back to the pressure of a totalitarian dictatorship to ten percent five.
National Defense University [National Defense University] referred to as the NDU's National Institute for Strategic Studies [Institute for National Stategic Studies] referred to as the INSS published in the June 1998 report on China's strategic development trends. The report is available to U.S. Secretary of Defense, the U.S. chairman of the Joint Armed Forces Chief of Staff three, commander of the Joint Command and more high-level U.S. government agencies.
U.S. government attaches great importance to China's strategic development trend. China's future development will profoundly affect the twenty-first century in Asia and the world situation.
one thousand nine hundred ninety-seven the end of the U.S. National Defense University Foundation-funded by the National Institute for Strategic Studies [INSS] convened a \The U.S. policy to China and the Asia Pacific region involved in the political, economic and strategic trends in the development,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], taking into account these strategic trends and a wide range of U.S. interests and policy conflicts. Working Group members from the U.S. political, academic and information systems scholars.
working group around the following nine sub-topics discussed for more than ten weeks. The full report were seventy four pages. Comments are the author briefly as follows:
American scholars that the Chinese government's forecast of economic conditions is not sure of. Economic development is the Beijing government established priority. Internally, improve living standards is to maintain social stability and legitimacy of the key leadership of the CPC. Twenty years,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], China's foreign policy goal is to cultivate a peaceful regional environment to support international trade and attract foreign direct investment. In the early nineties before the delayed update military equipment in order to concentrate financial resources on economic development. Economic development of Beijing's internal affairs and foreign affairs at all levels.
the importance of economic development has been widely recognized, but there is a significant tendency to neglect the potential negative economic systems conflict, the result: the mainstream of China's long-term forecast assessment is based plan in a straight line above is based on a large scale continuous economic growth based on. According to this view, Beijing ignore the inevitable economic cycle of recession and depression. Beijing government predict that by 2020 China's gross domestic product [GDP] will equal or exceed the United States. By then,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], world-class capabilities will provide the economic foundation of China as a superpower, and may challenge the established international order.
However, there is reason to line their own development plans and long-term economic forecasts for China to ask questions. Economic development to grow 10% to 12% of the day is ending, the growth rate is slowing. Chinese leaders have agreed to spend at least three to five years to focus on the impact of economic activities of the various aspects of economic structure up. From this point of view, economic considerations have been put to the conflict in a political environment.
because the yuan is not freely convertible into foreign currencies, as most investment came from foreign direct investment rather than loans from foreign banks, but also because of China's long-term debt, so China has to maintain and the Asian financial turmoil the formation of the worst effects of isolation. However,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], in Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan because of the financial crisis conditions, such as banks bad debts and inefficient capital investment and other circumstances, China has also emerged today.
In addition, as China's internal contradictions,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], signals an economic slowdown have emerged, such as the fall in consumption, increased unemployment, reduced costs, slow wage growth, real interest rates rise, fixed investment on the decline. Finally, output and foreign direct investment on the decline. All of these issues is difficult to imagine Zhu Rongji at the NPC session in March this year set by 8% economic growth target can be achieved. It should be said, 4% to 6% growth rate is more realistic. [Author's note: and Strategic Studies scholars estimate is close to estimates of the International Monetary Fund CIMF published in the Sept. 30 annual report forecast that China's economic growth this year was 5.5%. ] Chinese and foreign analysts have identified the lowest 5% GDP growth rate, such as economic growth rate to 5%, the need to prevent Chinese residents raised dissatisfaction with demands for political reform. In short, China's economic power has changed in the successful use of administrative means to control the inflation, Zhu Rongji and his colleagues to enhance the economy is facing enormous difficulties, the economy has not increased as fast as in the past.
Chinese leaders have recognized that, if Beijing book's growth rate to achieve and maintain the competitiveness of its neighbors,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the implementation of economic structural reform of the additional program is necessary, Zhu Rongji and his colleagues have felt have three years to complete the necessary reforms. This is the March National People's Congress announced targets. The reform effort includes four areas: increasing capital construction investment; consolidation in the market economy state-owned enterprises, restructuring the banking system, and reduce the government officials. Intelligence officials, politicians and academics agree that all analysis, the end result is still uncertain. Even the most optimistic observers believe that Zhu Rongji and his colleagues have only one chance of success only. Chance of success and the successful outcome is different.
obstacle to China's economic development is very scary. Increasing capital construction investment has been included in the national budget, but capital investment in China is notorious invalid. Investment decisions depend on political interest,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], rather than the actual state of the economy.
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