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Past two years, the existence of the real estate bubble on China's controversial one after another, today, while real estate prices have turned a deaf ear these arguments, continued to rise. Prices will go up or down in the end, said first look up or say who. If some real estate that up, that does not mean that, because the world is rarely sell something do not say what his own good, not to say that they were selling things
fall (which is equal to the real buyers off.)
Some hands have room, even in the real estate speculators, or people who are not short of money to buy a house, no matter who or what an economist, not much credibility, because they either do not care prices rose, as buying room to mention them, or the hands of a room, well after the fine smiling waiting for housing prices. Secondly, there is no reason to look right, if there basis. I am unknown, whose interests does not mean, to say whether the objective, its own conclusions:
a price determined by the value, while affected by supply and demand. Shanghai value of the house in the end is not good to judge how much, but look at the example of Japan, the Japanese because the people will be less, so the whole nation that Japan should rally special house up, resulting in a peak, three areas in and around Tokyo theory of land value of the land than the United States and the entire country in all the New York Stock Exchange listed company's net asset value. In this atmosphere, people can not help but fanatical, lose their sanity. So I'm afraid not because the cost of land another job in Shanghai that Shanghai should be the value of the house up to 10,000 yuan / square meters, because the price does not mean the land value.
Second, in previous years, as housing system, many people originally from the units to very low prices to buy property rights, and then sell high, creating a wealth effect, so increase the purchasing power, but also to improve housing conditions demand, and this part of the purchasing power in recent years is being focused on the release, but this buy low public houses, sell high a good thing no longer exists, so this part of the purchasing power released when completed, to promote the real estate market force will suddenly disappear.
Third, the Chinese woman hard all his life, and finally accumulated enough money to buy a house, but no time to enjoy to the death, while the American woman was admitted to a good house early, before his death to pay off all loans widely circulated story, and now home loans are more common, a bank of high-quality mortgage assets. However, the Bank of China in recent years, total loans rose sharply a few years, it is a row, China cut interest rates, loan repayment pressure declining years. Interest rates are the lowest since the reform and opening up, one-year deposit rate is only 2.25%, 5% and lending rates, but little more than 20 years in China, but the average one-year deposit rate is 4%, according to the current spreads to count, the average lending rate of 7%, while the United States for decades the average housing loan interest rate 8-9%, if interest rates rise to 7%, there will be so many people interested in loans to buy it? I am afraid that a large number of loans to buy a house before'd be trapped in too much pressure for repayment of financial quagmire. And in the world, different times, always a bank deposit interest rates higher than the inflation rate, and now China, by contrast, it has always been abnormal, the interest rate rise sooner or later the price rose to above, and China has now begun decades for the first time raise rates. In this way, the next few years are unlikely to have sustained a new financial leverage with bank loans for housing purchasing power.
Li Ka-shing said: When housing prices will not be dead, but when prices fall they will dead. One important reason is that the monthly repayment of bank's housing stock will wind knife sword nature are severe frost.
Fourth, China is likely to be implemented after the property tax. What does that mean? State the land is free of charge to developers, so that house prices do not include land, prices will drop (in prices the cost of land is now about 40%). Of course, to not free, by the buyers in the 30 to 50 years the average pay. Do you want such a policy one, who would buy land that includes the cost of the house? Already paid the cost of land prices also so high? And sell second-hand housing is not good, because we are willing to buy low-cost does not include land cost of the house. I think this policy will be implemented, the United States and other developed countries is one such.
five, according to Chinese law, the owners do not own the housing land ownership, only the right to use only a maximum of 70 years the right to use, that is, 70 years later, is over land ownership, as is the State re- payment of fees or in the future of land use rights for free use, or by the state to recover the right to use the basis of objective circumstances, not known. But always in the past 70 years, that day will come. Because the relevant laws enacted soon, so real estate is also the first time away from the land use right is still far away. But people will become aware of the problem. But the decision now on the market price often is the traffic, location, environment, and never consider the land use right term, when people generally begin to consider this issue, the land use right term prices must fall less, especially long Fangling second-hand housing.
six, regardless of currency or stock market or futures market, the more up when the most powerful, is about to peak time. In the New York stock market crash of 1929 triggered the world economic crisis, rose up special trading hot. Property market as well. And there is a law of inertia, the greater the value of goods, rose up to more difficult, but once up it, you can last longer. Such as stock, if it is large-cap stocks, the market value of 100 billion, then the general is not easy to rise up, as to promote it, to be more money, and once started to rise, is not easy to stop,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], not like the price of vegetables on the market, One day may be three changes, or as unpredictable as the girl's mind. Similarly the real estate market because the capital-intensive, once up, will last a long time, but once you start down it, is not easy to look back, such as Hong Kong, 1997 to 2002, up to five years, fallen by 60%. Japan's economy there are signs of recovery this year, but prices Zaicuo 5%.
seven, and now there is little demand in China, unless the products are monopolistic, because social capital adequacy, once an industry with high profit margins, then the funds will flock to the industry, thereby reducing the profits of the industry rate. Marx said that the capital and 20% of the profits once, it will become active again, 50% of the profits to be used everywhere ----- such as matches, if there is 200% profit margin, then the production will soon be big up, profit margin down quickly, or even negative, then there will be many investors have had to withdraw from the market, so that profit margins will rise gradually, and ultimately quite social average profit margin. But the real estate industry booming for several years why can not see recession? Because of long production cycle. A local match factory could increase tenfold within a month, but a local real estate projects under construction to double within a month if you are not likely to leap, and it needs more funds, and unfair competition , unfair competition, in serious condition. Therefore, the profit margin for a time the industry will not soon decline, so the high prices. But the world everything has its rise and fall cycle, then a long production cycle is not infinite, there will always be that day. Pluto around the sun around the time can be a long, long, 200 years, 200 years is long enough, right? 200 years off, not to turn back? People can not live forever, prices will eventually fall.
eight, according to real estate in recent years the pace of development, much larger than the GDP growth rate, this continues to 2020, China's real estate industry's GDP will exceed the country's GDP, is this possible? Therefore the growth rate will decline.
nine and psychological factors. Mao Zedong said: Truth always rests in the hands of a minority. Ask now and buy a house on the market, selling people, real estate agents, or the government departments, the Shanghai housing prices will go up or down, no one idea in mind of. We all know no one is assertive, so ordinary people have a buy or not to buy up the psychological. Saw the newspaper reported that there were queuing to buy a house, just was anxious to excited, want to buy one to see their results did not buy the house prices, and my heart to regret it. This reminds me of Warren Buffett United States often told a story: an oilman to heaven after death, the results of St. Peter said: I am sorry, I know you are alive and upright behavior, do a lot of good things, but heaven has already reached saturation It is no less than living people. The oilman said, it does not matter, I have a way, he shouted on the door of heaven: hell discovery of oil in it! Immediately ran from the door where a lot of people need to get to hell. St. Peter was surprised to see it all, saying: Now you can enter heaven. Unexpectedly, oilman, said: \
X. publicity. No statistics can be identified, newspapers, networks, said house prices rose in home prices are down much more than that. Why? Guangzhou were priced at 0.5 yuan a newspaper, each sold copy of the newspaper will be able to 1 yuan income, an open secret that it is because of advertising revenue. Will be holding a newspaper is not a real estate agency in advertising, and then published a large number of objective and fair article that house prices will fall? On the contrary, published some think prices will rise, encouraging people to buy the article, real estate agency who is supporting published.
XI, it was said, the local government does not want the local housing prices fall, so prices will not fall. Jokes, the Chinese people better than the Japanese government of a local government money? Is the Hong Kong government, some local government money than the Chinese? When Japan and Hong Kong's housing prices continued to fall when the Government of Japan and Hong Kong do hope that house prices fell it? Some people may think that financial strength as Japan, Hong Kong, the Chinese government has the power to do local governments in Japan, Hong Kong Government can not do it. More importantly, the commodity price change is determined by the economic laws, not to people's subjective will.
second, some people think, the land is non-renewable resources, so the long term, prices are always rising. This sentence is of course right. In fact, the long term the stock market is rising, the New York stock market crash of 1929, and now I do not know how many times have gone up, but who in 1930, when to buy stocks? How many people are now active in China to buy stocks? We all know that long-term positive even if the stock market bullish. New York was 24 dollars in value buy cheap gadgets, and if that $ 24 will be used for investment, the annual rate of 8% to 24 dollars in 1995, which would be 28 trillion dollars. If you save up to 24 dollars, when you can buy it back to Manhattan. If someone spent the time in 1950 when the price of buying the 1995 New York, while another 200 years, certainly hit the jackpot, but then it is a loss.
thirteen, on the income and price ratio. Now many people,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], especially to benefit from rising house prices on the ignorance of people like those who hesitated, and said, now how much house prices in Hong Kong from the mainland this price still far, so they wanted to rose. However, one of Hong Kong workers to do cleaning, can earn 9,000 Hong Kong dollars a month, but a place like Hong Kong, a stable income and low unemployment. So take a look at income and price ratio, the highest housing prices in Hong Kong when it was no 14:1. Mr. Liu Jianchang Chinese Academy of Social Measurement: The Case of Shanghai, a set of 80 square meters of housing price is per capita disposable income of 27.54 times, while abroad, a housing and a multiple of per capita disposable income are: Germany, 11.41, 1.03 United Kingdom, Italy 8.61 France 7.68 United States 6.43, with extreme shortage of land resources per capita in Japan, this proportion is only 11.07. A lot of things with Chinese characteristics is justified, but for the price earnings ratio, is not always so high.
fourth, China in the coming decades, one thing is quite certain that China's urbanization, a large number of farmers into the cities would become public. But how to accomplish this task? At the present level of income of Chinese farmers, just a comfortable level, once a child is in college, will have to tighten their belts or a large number of loans, some families tend to have a family member because of illness, immediate cause of poverty, which is impossible in the short term income the change, let farmers bear the high prices now the city does it mean fantasy? Therefore, to improve China's urbanization rate, China's housing prices in the long run must be reduced, so that the general income level of people can afford.
fifth the past two years, as prices continued to rise, so a lot of money for the pursuit of high profits into this market, the Buy waiting for the appreciation. There is a real estate in the international warning line ratio, about 15%, more than this ratio is more dangerous. However, according to Shanghai, \payment of new home loans, in fact, this is also the investment behavior. Investors to buy a house in the process of real estate prices, you can push prices further up, also, when the price peaked, there is big money because they no longer expected, and to avoid down the drain, the inevitable heavy selling This will speed up housing prices decline. In China,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the Wenzhou famous real estate group river north and south, while in Shanghai and also other investors in the province of mainland China collapsed, and overseas investors. Do not remember how many houses in Shanghai are a foreigner to buy, and about 40%, but in some international cities like New York, but also by the local residents to purchase 75% of the property. In short, investors who buy more of the greater role in promoting the housing bubble more serious.
sixteen, rarely was there a clear future, there is another right under the judge, most people think that the trend will continue according to the original the original direction and speed development. Such as China since the reform and opening up, economic growth, so most people think that at least two to three decades this situation will not change during the year. The house has been rising in recent years, so many people think that will go up. But one thing is now more sensitive to the Taiwan issue. Today, more and more obvious trend *** Chen, emboldened, say more and more off the mark, or even discharge of the timetable. Mao Zedong said: seriously afraid of the world the word. *** Members of the Chinese national has been responsible, I am afraid that if Taiwan declares independence, the war will be inevitable. Ago, also said that the missile will hit Taiwan,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the Three Gorges Dam, or that would counter the missiles hit Taiwan, Shanghai. In this case, not to mention a few bombs missiles hit Shanghai, even if there is a missile fragments fell on a district of Shanghai, Shanghai's housing prices will continue to rise not?
Finally, although the author is still no room to family, can still hope that housing prices significantly rose impartial, such as an academic put it up 3 times in 10 years, so there is room would greatly increase people's worth it short period of time is no good for me, but what most likely burst the bubble it? That is a big bubble burst, and small hard to burst the bubble, to get a small burst, and the best way is to make it bigger, get bigger, the easier it burst. The faster prices rise, people buy less and less money to invest in real estate more and more, this is what the end result, do not understand?