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These days, housing of resident of Shenzhen building city mortgages loan to break get for be being heated up to fry very. Hang caption to look from media, this incident is how serious, arrive badly how to affect local economy, affect the system of domestic commercial bank, finance safety that how affects a country. But actually, shenzhen building city mortgages loan to break offerring is a Gu case only. Assume appear really such things, undeserved also spoffish.

Because, according to leader of the Shenzhen when value of Shenzhen estate market rose quickly first half of the year 2007 place character, the estate market of Shenzhen is healthy progress, because have,house price rises is of the dweller live oneself demand. According to the information that he provides, the estate market of Shenzhen trades at that time having 80% above is the dweller lives oneself sexual demand. Since the estate market of Shenzhen trades basically of the dweller live oneself demand, so even if from the beginning of the year since, shenzhen house price dropped 30% , it lives oneself to these the dweller housing of demand is to won't cause how many effect.

Because, the housing that the dweller buys basically lives oneself, so of house price rise or drop, besides the wealth effect that has touch to the dweller, the effect both neither that consumes to the dweller also can be met more decrease. Recently, the house price of Shenzhen drops and can not change the house that already bought housing dweller quite basic effectiveness. Accordingly, loan is mortgaged to did not increase in housing or below reductive circumstance, unless minority resides witenagemot to come up against paroxysmal incident, I think neither one dweller chooses to offer at will. Because, such doing, those who be harmed is the biggest is him dweller. Stop the resident that offer already door should bear to already paid a paid loss, loss that should bear to already offerred a fund and housing to trade not only the loss of charge, and can mar individual credence to record. Can say, in perfect gradually fall with the individual credit system that develop, individual credence is undesirable the record produces come-and-go relation can create a lot of obstacles to prospective individual and commercial bank. Below such circumstance, unless be forced to do,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] ,, buy without which from housing person can choose those who offer to mortgage loan to break. Because, its cost and cost are too high.

To investing the person that the gender buys a house, the view that leads according to Shenzhen first, its proportion is not high, although these investor want to offer, very small also to the influence of whole Shenzhen. The person that second investment sex buys a house breaks the node that offer should be the mortgages loan and housing market prise that house price drops to want to return a bank in its on balanced dot. If want to return market prise of housing of bank loan far outclass, investor breaks the possibility that offer bigger. But whether is investor broken will decide for be being returned so that to estate market price by him case anticipates. If anticipate house price drops,be short-term only, so its break the opportunity that offer to lead not quite. If he anticipates house price drops,can last and range is too big, so he can be met choose to offer. 3 if investment violates compasses operation,be, for instance 0 pay, small proportion head pay etc, so it is certain to want house price to have only adjust, these investor choose possibly to offer. But, this is the target that the government hits. This kind of circumstance won't be exposed easily come out. Accordingly, of housing investor break offerring is not to see house price drops to be broken at will for, its can consider corresponding materiality and aeriform cost certainly. Housing investor is not be forced to do likewise be to won't choose to offer below the condition.

Why this says to offer namely is case of a Gu, the person that no matter be consumer or investor,selects this kind of method is very few. Be in Hong Kong for instance, in 1997-2003 of severe tax assets year, can choose to offer without how many person at all. Because, once such circumstance happens, have to affect the life of individual lifetime. It is especially in the market that system of Chinese sincere letter perfects gradually, this kind breaks the condition that offer to happen to be able to produce tremendous negative effect to individual economy life.

Somebody thinks, drop as Shenzhen house price, shenzhen is short-term inside can appear to offer tide. Because, look in him, arrived 2005 between 2007 the investor scale of Shenzhen estate market is in 35% the left and right sides. And the proportion of investor is exorbitant, want house price to had dropped only fast, can let these investor be faced with break the risk that offer.

Here a few concepts get an analysis to be clear about, it is arrive from July 2005 in July 2007, the estate market of Shenzhen rises in price how many, and the house price that comes to Shenzhen nearly one year dropped again how many. And will nearly one year drop extent often rises under before two years when extent, so estate investor is broken offer be willing too won't big, accordingly, house price drops to did not stop to these investor at all damage site. Just, to entering estate market investor first half of the year 2007 for, its house price is fried exorbitantly, bubble part is too large, accordingly,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] ,, its are faced with break the risk that offer bigger also. But no matter be,be divided from period of time, still be divided from specific gravity, the investor proportion that this period enters estate market won't be too large. Accordingly, although investor of this period estate chooses to offer, unapt also form for tide, because its number is very limited. And even if this phase enters market investor, also each person can not choose to offer. This is why to although appear,offer an appearance, but the bank system of Shenzhen still mortgages housing loan is regarded is high grade asset, its fraction defective is insufficient 1% . So, alleged Shenzhen appears to offer tide is swashbuckling only, is not the thing with alarming what. Because, as case of a Gu, the commercial bank is early prepare somewhat. Accordingly, the loss that these blame expect the bank used bank capital early to enclothe. Why do this have person to will appear to be able to conduct oneself in society for wet commercial bank namely not Jing.

Here, a kind of wrong idea wants the popularity on the market be able to correct. Look in many people, if appear to offer tide,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] ,, its risk commercial bank wants to assume, investor also can be assumed, but this person that to living oneself the gender buys a house is inequitable. Actually, the symmetry of risk and accrual, also be same to living oneself for the person that the gender buys a house. But, for the person that to living oneself the gender buys a house, although house price drops, as a result of its income level does not have a change, its break the possibility that offer too won't big; Assume alleged live oneself the person that the gender buys a house should choose malign break for, thinking is profitable so, so this kind lives oneself the person that the gender buys a house has been changed for investor, its part chooses to differ, assume a risk different also.

Still have,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] ,, assume Shenzhen appears really so called break reach financial system for tide can spread to the whole nation and affecting Chinese economy. Actually, this kind of concern was not necessary. Because, because estate is to be not produced,move, estate market is each intersected market. Because,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] ,, in these different markets, the bubble degree of its estate market is the same as far from. For instance, current a lot of 2, the price of market of estate of 3 lines city, rise as a result of these urban house price range is not big, accordingly, its are adjusted should bear to the commercial bank the degree of the risk still has very large space. That is to say, want to let general of countrywide house price drop to the commercial bank to bear to the degree of the risk still has very large space or lose property owner to appear in great quantities. Accordingly, near future home appears national break for tide almost impossible.
Anyhow, shenzhen is so called break happen impossibly for tide, although happened,also not be case of a few Gu too, not worth spoffish, also do not break with this kind will coerce a government to change current estate market policy for tide, make Chinese estate market new make market of agreeable of a hype, let estate develop business big profiteer. |||It is economics one's previous experience, have fun at quite to these things so stopped! powered by:[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]
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